Top 5 market triggers this week
Scholarship this week: With geopolitical tensions easing, crude oil prices falling and FIIs standing alongside DIIs as net buyers, the Indian secondary market started FY23 on a high note. Positive sentiments in Dalal Street went further north after India’s GST collection in March hit a record high of ₹1.42 lakh crore.
According to stock market experts, next week will be crucial for Indian secondary markets as RBI monetary policy is expected to arrive. They said apart from RBI credit policy, keep an eye on RBI-Ukraine news as it will continue to dictate global equity markets including Dalal Street.
Speaking on the triggers that fueled the Indian stock market last week; Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said: “Indian equity markets are starting FY23 on a positive note thanks to lower crude oil prices, positive news flows on the Russian- Ukrainian, to certain purchases by the FII, to the continued support of the DII. , and a resumption of industrial activities. Global markets are stable, but there is still no clarity on the geopolitical situation amid concerns of both high inflation and a slowdown as China grapples with the Covid.
Here we list the top 5 triggers that will dictate the Indian stock market this week:
1]RBI Credit Policy: “This week, the RBI’s monetary policy will be a critical factor in the direction of the Indian markets as it looks like the RBI is lagging the curve as most central banks have already hiked interest rates while the RBI maintains the status quo. It will be interesting to see how RBI handles the trade-off between inflation and growth where feedback will be crucial,” said Santosh Meena.
2]Russia-Ukraine News: After the breaking of the ice in diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine, the stock market across the world looks on with renewed hope. “As Russia and Ukraine are ready for talks, the global community expects a positive outcome from these talks. However, nothing should be assumed until there is an official announcement from the two sides and, therefore, traders and investors are advised to keep an eye out for the latest news from Russia and Ukraine,” said Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities.
3]FII behavior: Asking high street investors to keep an eye on the behavior of FIIs in the first one to two trading sessions this week, Avinash Gorakshkar said: “After remaining net short since October 2021, FIIs are finally looking to the side. DIIs as net buyers. However, this has only happened in the last week and therefore one should not jump to conclusions regarding DIIs. Keep an eye on the DII business model during the first one to two sessions this week.
4]Beginning of the earnings season: April also arrives with earnings season. This month, earnings season starts from April 11 as IT giants like TCS, Wipro, Infosys, HCL Tech, etc. will announce their quarterly figures from April 11.
“We expect a strong move in IT stocks this week as the market awaits fourth quarter numbers from IT majors,” Avinash Gorakshkar said.
5]New Covid cases in China: However, keep an eye on new Covid cases reported in China. On Saturday, it reported the highest new Covid cases since February 2020. Any further increase in new Covid cases in China could spoil positive sentiments in global stock markets. It is therefore necessary for street watchers and investors to keep an eye on the new Covid cases reported in China.
Warning: The opinions and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint.
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