Jonathan Rao

As the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its third week, there is no sign of its end.
Despite three meetings between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, no substantial breakthrough has been made as bloodshed and human displacement continue. The effect of the war has already shown itself in rising commodity prices globally, especially crude oil and wheat, and there have been logistical disruptions. A gigantic human crisis resulting in the displacement of around two million people from Ukraine is putting pressure on neighboring counties.

India, being the largest democracy in the world, is preoccupied with the stakes of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He is close to both Russia and Ukraine and, as a sympathizer, believes that any dispute between two sovereign nations should be resolved through dialogue rather than war. The Indian Prime Minister held talks with the leaders of the two belligerent countries as well as with neighboring countries such as Hungary. India’s response to the war and the resulting abstention from voting on the UN resolution could be seen as a responsible, neutral and humane stance on the issue. India has made it a point of honor for leaders of warring nations to create a humane corridor for civilians to walk away from war-torn regions with its own students in Ukraine. India has also sent a very strong message as a responsible nation by facilitating students from neighboring Pakistan and Nepal.

India, as the fastest growing economy in the world, is concerned about the economic implications of the war on the global economy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe with which India has deep ties. Disruptions to the global commodity supply chain, particularly crude oil, gas and wheat, would not bode well for the nascent global economic recovery from COVID-19. India believes that the two warring countries which share a long common history and culture should open their doors for fruitful dialogue.

Unlike others, India has not taken sides or fallen into the blame game. Although many Western countries accuse Russia of invading a sovereign nation, China in its statements has accused NATO of instigating the Russian-Ukrainian war. The blame game often reduces the chances of finding a solution to a problem. It is obvious that under Russia-Ukraine there is an undeniable semblance of war for hegemony between the superpowers which refreshes the memory of the Cold War.

It is necessary to appreciate Russian concern over the presence of NATO forces in its backyard, but nothing can justify a war. India understands Russia’s concerns, but does not approve of violent methods of resolving issues. The efforts of the United States and its NATO partners to contain a superpower like Russia, even indirectly, alleging that it is an arrogant, autocratic and irresponsible power would only lead to a vicious circle of arguments and counter-arguments and vitiate the situation.

Indications have been given by China, Israel and Turkey for interim talks between the two belligerent countries. But these countries do not command as much confidence as the mediators. While China remains aligned with Russia, however, tacitly Turkey is known to have played both sides – Russia and Western allies.
For Israel, it will be very difficult to prove that it is neutral between Russia and the United States, as it has long been an ally of the latter, especially in the context of geopolitics in the Middle East.

The global economy, which was showing “green shoots” of economic recovery after the recessionary impact of the Covid pandemic, is once again under threat. India fears that the ripple effects of a war of this magnitude, if continued, could undermine the world’s efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

The series of sanctions, including debarment from SWIFT, imposed on Russia would not have economic implications for Russia alone, but for all countries, including those in the EU that have close ties with the Russia. Although the sanctions would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive payments for exports and imports and cripple cross-border financial transactions, Russia’s major trading partners, including European countries, would also face difficulties in paying Russian oil and gas imports.

The US President’s recent speech that people should be prepared to pay the price for the cause of democracy as global commodity prices, including crude oil and wheat, hit new highs, is not very reassuring to solve the problem. Inflationary pressure would make life difficult for poor households around the world.

Many Asian economies, including India, import a large part of their energy needs and a sharp spike in crude prices would put immense pressure on their balance of payments. Importantly, as the Indian economy is being treated as a driver of the global economic recovery post Covid, such a spike would weigh heavily on growth and price stability. Nor can China afford to rejoice as the silent winner of Russia’s challenge to the United States and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic location, Ukraine is very important for China as a gateway to Europe and the European Union, the war would affect the supply of minerals and agricultural products in both directions. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI, which Kyiv joined in 2017. Chinese companies working in Ukraine, including Beinkew Energy, Xinjiang communications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group, would also experience disruptions to their operations.

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Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Kyiv residents urged to visit bomb shelters

An air alert was declared in and around Kyiv, with residents urged to get to bomb shelters as quickly as possible.

“Kiev region, air alert. Threat of missile attack. Everyone immediately under cover,” regional administration chief Oleksiy Kuleba said on Telegram.

For days, as Moscow’s forces besieged Ukrainian towns, attempts to create corridors to evacuate civilians safely failed amid relentless fighting.

Russian forces have seen their advances halted in some areas, notably around the capital Kyiv, by fiercer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance

Lavrov travels to Turkey for talks with Kuleba

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is visiting Turkey where he will meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, TASS news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying.

Evacuation of Sumy in Ukraine continues: governor

A humanitarian corridor out of the beleaguered Ukrainian city of Sumy will continue to operate, regional governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyy said.

About 5,000 people bussed out of the northeastern city on Tuesday after Moscow and Kyiv agreed on the corridor, he said, and about 1,000 cars were also able to leave, heading to the city of Poltava.

IAEA says it has lost contact with Chernobyl nuclear data systems

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant is no longer transmitting data to the UN’s atomic watchdog, the agency said, expressing concern about personnel working under Russian guard at the Ukrainian facility.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, “reported that the remote transmission of data from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant had been lost,” the agency said in a statement. a statement.

“The Agency is reviewing the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” she said.

Pentagon says Polish jet offer to Ukraine ‘unsustainable’

The Pentagon rejected Poland’s surprise announcement that it would give the United States its MiG-29 fighter jets for use in Ukraine.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Poland’s statement that it intended to deliver the 28 jets to the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany raised the worrying prospect that warplanes depart from a US and NATO base to fly in contested airspace with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.

“We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies on this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is tenable,” Kirby said in a statement.

Hungary will not support sanctions against Russia over oil and gas imports: PM

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that his country is against possible sanctions against Russia which would cover imports of its oil and natural gas.

Orban said Hungary condemned Russia’s launch of a war against Ukraine but would not allow Hungarian families “to be forced to pay the price of war”. Noting that the sanctions imposed on Russia affect all countries in Europe, he said the extension of sanctions to the Russian energy sector will affect Hungary “very seriously”.

Orban said Hungary buys most of its oil and natural gas from Russia and 90% of Hungarian families heat their homes with gas, adding that the Hungarian economy could not function without oil and gas.

Russian central bank limits cash withdrawals abroad

Russia’s central bank said it is limiting the amount of money citizens with foreign currency accounts can withdraw under a “temporary procedure”.

The procedure runs from March 9 to September 9, the bank said in a statement posted on its website.

Account holders can withdraw up to $10,000 in cash, and the rest of the funds must be in rubles at the market rate on the day of issue.

Russia allows Ukrainian civilians to leave major cities

Russian forces will stop firing from 10:00 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) to provide humanitarian corridors for people to leave the capital Kyiv and four other cities, senior Russian officials said.

Meanwhile, the United Nations human rights office said it has verified 1,335 civilian casualties in Ukraine so far, including 474 killed and 861 injured, but the true toll is likely to be higher.

Ukraine says its forces have killed more than 11,000 Russian soldiers.

Russia has confirmed around 500 casualties.

Neither side disclosed any Ukrainian casualties.

Civilian evacuations took place on Tuesday, in particular from the city of Sumy, from where two convoys left during the day.

Evacuations also took place outside the capital Kiev.

But attempts to evacuate the port city of Mariupol have repeatedly failed in recent days, with Kyiv and Moscow blaming the other side for the failures.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president has called for an end to the war with Russia, saying the two countries should hold talks for the good of the people.

“The war must end. We must sit down at the negotiating table – not for outdated murderous ambitions, but for the interests of the people,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video message.

Japan may quit Sakhalin energy projects to stop Russian aggression

Japanese Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda has said Tokyo may consider pulling out of “Sakhalin projects”, referring to energy projects on Russia’s Sakhalin island, if it helps stop China’s aggression. Russia versus Ukraine.

Hagiuda made the comment during a parliamentary session.

For Tuesday (March 8) live updates, click here

Source: TRTWorld and agencies

The meeting comes at a critical time in the war, as Russian forces encircle major cities and Ukraine reels in a humanitarian crisis. Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are continuing bilateral talks, but several diplomatic overtures by third parties, including efforts by French President Emmanuel Macron, have stalled.

Israel is in a unique position to potentially barter a deal, or at least send messages between Western allies Russia and Ukraine, given its alliance with the United States, its quiet cooperation with Russia in Syria and its shared cultural ties with Ukraine. Mr. Bennett and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are the only two Jews in the world to head national governments.

Mr. Bennett’s office said in a statement on Saturday evening that the meeting with Mr. Putin lasted about three hours and took place “in coordination and with the blessing of the US administration”. In addition, the statement added, Mr. Bennett was working in coordination with Germany and France and was “in permanent dialogue with Ukraine”.

There was no immediate information on the results of the meeting. A spokeswoman for Mr. Bennett said he spoke with Mr. Zelensky after his meeting with Mr. Putin.

The Israeli government has tried to maintain good relations with Russian and Ukrainian leaders during the current crisis, and Mr. Bennett had previously been invited by Mr. Zelensky to mediate between the parties.

Mr Bennett left Moscow on Saturday evening to travel to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Mr. Scholz was in Israel for a short visit this week and, in a meeting with Mr. Bennett, discussed Israel’s possible role in mediating between Russia and Ukraine.

Mr. Bennett had spoken by phone with Mr. Putin on Wednesday, hours after speaking with Mr. Zelensky, the latest of a few rounds of phone conversations between them.

In a sign of the mission’s urgency, Mr. Bennett, an observant Jew, left Israel Saturday morning over the Sabbath, breaking the religious injunction banning travel. According to Jewish religious law, the sanctity of the Sabbath is superseded by the principle of preservation of human life.

Mr. Bennett was accompanied by Zeev Elkin, Israel’s housing minister, who helped with the translation, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. Mr. Elkin has frequently acted in a similar capacity over the past decade in meetings between Mr. Bennett’s predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Mr. Putin.

Mr. Elkin, who is also an observant Jew, was born in Kharkiv, Ukraine, in 1971, when it was part of the Soviet Union, and emigrated to Israel in 1990. Mr. Elkin has a brother who still lives with his family in Kharkiv, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting for control.

The Israeli delegation also included the prime minister’s national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, his diplomatic adviser, Shimrit Meir, and his spokesperson, Matan Sidi.

Mr Bennett had faced criticism in recent days, including from Mr Zelensky, for not taking the more vocal side of Ukraine and for refraining from supplying him with material military.

Israeli officials have said Israel must maintain good relations with Russia so that it can continue Israel’s military campaign against entrenching Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, where Russia maintains a significant presence.

They said Israel was also concerned about large Jewish communities in Russia and Ukraine. After Saturday’s meeting at the Kremlin, Mr. Bennett’s office said he also spoke with Mr. Putin about the situation of Israelis and Jewish communities following the conflict in Ukraine.

Saturday’s meeting comes after several requests by Mr. Zelensky, to both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Bennett, to mediate between him and Mr. Putin. The latest request was made in a telephone conversation held on February 25, during which Mr. Zelensky also asked for military equipment. While refusing to send defensive equipment, Mr Bennett agreed to try to mediate between the countries.

Several rounds of phone conversations followed between Mr. Bennett and Mr. Putin, between Mr. Bennett and Mr. Zelensky, and between officials in their teams. Israeli officials believe Israeli mediation had some effect in getting Ukraine to agree to start talks with Russia in Belarus.

Mr. Hulata, Israel’s national security adviser, briefed the White House National Security Council on developments since the telephone conversation with Mr. Zelensky.

Israeli officials said the Kremlin meeting also touched on the progress of talks in Vienna for a return to a nuclear deal with Iran, and Mr Bennett voiced Israel’s opposition to a return to the nuclear deal. ‘OK.

With the exception of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, Latin America has turned its back on Russia on the invasion of ukrainebut Moscow can keep an ace up its sleeve and surprise with a “symbolic” provocation in the region to challenge United States.

Lately, even as the drums of war beat in Ukraine, Russia has been on a frenzy diplomatic deployment in Latin Americaarea of ​​influence of the United States, in search of allies.

Last week, the Russian President, Vladimir Poutine, received his counterpart Brazilian, Jair Bolsonaroin Moscow, where he had previously met the Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, who even proposed to his country to be a “gateway to Latin America”.

(Due to the public interest in the events between Russia and Ukraine, all of our coverage of this invasion and related actions will be freely available to all EL TIEMPO readers)

(Also read: Ukraine reports increased radiation at Chernobyl after Russians arrive)

But as soon as the tanks arrived in Ukraine on Thursday, both rejected the use of armed force, as have most countries in the region.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank, isn’t surprised. “The trade relationship with Russia is very limited and the risk of aligning with it is not worth it,” he told AFP.

Putin has three allies in the region – Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua – who have positioned themselves by his side more than anything “for ideological and transactional interests”, he underlines. Christopher Sabatini, researcher at the Chatham House think tank.

On the very day of the start of the invasion of Ukraine, an official Russian delegation, led by the Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, Viacheslav Volodin, arrived in Nicaragua to meet the President Daniel Ortegawho a week earlier had discussed economic and military issues with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.

‘Barking dog, little biter’

Russia, which a month ago threatened military deployment in Cuba and Venezuelaseeks to strengthen “his friendships to show that he is not isolated internationally and complicate the strategic position of the United States by projecting a threat in the region”, he explains. Evan Ellis, Professor of Latin American Studies at the Institute for Strategic Studies at the US Army War College.

that he Kremlin doing “something symbolic is very likely” because he’s said it many times, Ellis says. But “a barking dog, not very biting”, nevertheless specifies the expert, who opts for “something improvised, in order to project a threat, more than substantial or well planned”.

“A certain kind of military provocation or the signing of an agreement to show its ability to project itself militarily in the region,” he explains.

The bloody military offensive in Ukraine has imposed a battery of sanctions on Russia to inflict economic damage “both immediate and long-term”, in the words of US President Joe Biden.

(You might be interested in: Fierce street battles in Kiev, under assault by Russian troops)

With an economy under sanctions severely affecting its oil exports and financial system, “Russia is unlikely to have the resources or the logistical capacity to maintain a significant military presence” in the Americas for long, Ellis said.

China on the prowl

In recent years, Latin America has become politically fragmented, which means that “relations not only with Russia, but also with Chinabe more diverse,” says Sabatini. And the new war “will put these new relations to the test”.

The United States, whose relations with Russia and China are at their lowest points, is balancing itself to strengthen ties in the region while fighting corruption in certain countries, notably in Central America, from which waves of immigrants fleeing misery and they seek a better future.

And the rise in wheat prices, which have reached records not seen since 2008, and in oil prices following the war in Ukraine will be particularly sensitive in these developing countries. Central America and the Caribbean.

“For them, the shortage will likely mean a rise in critical import prices and the risk of rising popular discontent,” Sabatini warns.

(Also: Analysis of how this tension between Russia and Ukraine was reached)

Russia will depend more economically on China, which has long-term goals in Latin America, “like replacing the United States as the main economic partner,” Shifter says.

In this war, Beijing “will maintain a fairly neutral position and examine what its rivals are doing”, he adds.

“He will closely monitor developments in this crisis to take advantage of any US weakness to expand his own influence in the region, which needs a lot of economic support.”

AFP

Western leaders launched a volley of condemnations and threatened retaliation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered the entry of troops into the country and asked the army in Kiev to lay down their arms in what many fear will be the worst European conflict since the Second World War.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that if military action leads to “all-out war”, it will be difficult to predict the number of dead and displaced.

US President Joe Biden has accused Putin of launching a “premeditated war that will result in catastrophic loss of life and human suffering”.

NATO has convened an emergency meeting of its top decision-making body, its leader Jens Stoltenberg denouncing “Russia’s reckless and unprovoked attack on Ukraine, which puts countless civilian lives at risk”.

“In these dark hours, our thoughts are with Ukraine and the innocent women, men and children who face this unprovoked attack and fear for their lives,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister, said Putin had “chose a path of bloodshed and destruction in launching this unprovoked attack on Ukraine”, adding: “The UK and our allies will respond decisive way”.

“It’s a terrible day for Ukraine and a dark day for Europe,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. “The Russian attack on Ukraine is a flagrant violation of international law. Germany condemns this irresponsible act by President Putin in the strongest terms.

Zhang Jun, the Chinese envoy to the UN, said the “door to a peaceful solution” had not yet closed and that all parties should exercise restraint.

Ireland, which sits on the UN Security Council, condemned the Russian invasion and demanded strong action from the West.

“Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. May God help them, ” tweeted Simon Coveney, Minister of Foreign Affairs. “Make no mistake, this is a shocking and murderous act of aggression against a sovereign and peaceful state. The EU and the world must react strongly.

But Keir Giles, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank, said the ‘weak’ package of measures unveiled by the Prime Minister yesterday did not go far enough – and said it was vital to target what he called “the Russian money problem in London”. Speaking in the Commons on Tuesday, Mr Johnson said three people – Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and his nephew Igor Rotenberg – were all being sanctioned by the UK government.

In addition, five entities, including Russian banks, were also named.

However, critics including MP David Lammy were disappointed by the announcement, with the Shadow Foreign Secretary saying on Wednesday: ‘There is no point in tackling Russian aggression abroad , without doing anything to fight against Russian corruption at home.

“For a decade the Tories failed on this – worse, they allowed it.”

However, Mr Giles, responding to a question from Express.co.uk during a webinar hosted by Chatham House titled Russian-Ukrainian Crisis: Latest Developments, indicated that Timchenko, the sixth richest man in Russia, and Boris Rotenberg were actually EU citizens, having Finnish nationality.

Mr Giles, speaking hours before Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour, added: ‘The side effect of Brexit has been to free the UK from EU foreign policy, which which means they can actually sanction EU citizens, including those Russian decision makers close to President Putin.

“If this is indeed the case, this is a great way to leverage some of the benefits of Brexit to continue this more robust policy against Russia.”

READ MORE: Boris Johnson ‘appalled’ by ‘horrible’ Russian invasion of Ukraine