KYIV, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Russian forces attacked oil and gas facilities in Ukraine, causing huge explosions, officials said on Sunday, as Western allies prepared new sanctions, including banning major Russian banks of the main global payment system.

Ukrainian forces were holding back Russian troops advancing towards the capital, Kiev, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said as the biggest assault on a European state since World War II entered its fourth day.

Russian missiles have found their mark, including a strike that set fire to an oil terminal in Vasylkiv, southwest of Kiev, the city’s mayor said. The explosions sent huge flames and black smoke into the night sky, online posts showed.

There was also heavy fighting for Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv, in the northeast, where Russian troops blew up a gas pipeline, a Ukrainian state agency said. The gas explosion sent a mushroom cloud into the darkness.

“The enemy wants to destroy everything,” Vasylkiv Mayor Natalia Balasinovich said.

Russian troops then entered Kharkiv, Interior Ministry adviser Anton Herashchenko said on Telegram. Videos posted by him and a state agency showed several military vehicles moving down a street and, separately, a burning tank.

Russian-backed separatists in the eastern province of Lugansk said a Ukrainian missile blew up an oil terminal in the town of Rovenky.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a special military operation on Thursday, ignoring weeks of Western warnings and saying ‘neo-Nazis’ in power in Ukraine were threatening Russia’s security – a charge that Kiev and Western governments call it baseless propaganda.

Reuters witnesses in Kyiv reported occasional explosions and gunfire in the city on Saturday night, but it’s unclear where it came from.

“We resisted and successfully repelled enemy attacks. The fighting continues,” Zelenskiy said in a video message from the streets of Kiev posted on his social media.

A US defense official said Ukrainian forces were putting up “very determined resistance” to Russia’s air, land and sea advance, which has sent hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians fleeing west, obstructing the major highways and railways.

The United States and its European partners have said they will also impose restrictions on Russia’s central bank to limit its ability to support the ruble and fund Putin’s war effort.

“We are determined to continue to impose costs on Russia that will further isolate Russia from the international financial system and our economies,” said a statement from the United States, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Great Britain and the European Commission. Read more

BAD FOR BUSINESS

After initially hesitating such a move largely due to concerns about the impact on their economies, the allies said they were committed to “ensuring that certain Russian banks are removed from the messaging system SWIFT”.

They did not name which banks would be expelled, but an EU diplomat said around 70% of the Russian banking market would be affected. Read more

The decision – which France’s finance minister had called a “financial nuclear weapon” because of the damage it would inflict on the Russian economy – is a blow to Russian trade and makes it harder for its companies to do business.

SWIFT, a secure messaging network that facilitates fast cross-border payments, said it was preparing to implement the measures.

Sanctions on Russia’s central bank could limit Putin’s use of its more than $630 billion in international reserves, widely seen as protecting Russia from some economic harm.

Google banned Russian state media RT and other channels from receiving money for ads on their websites, apps and YouTube videos, as Facebook did.

‘DETERMINED RESISTANCE’

The Kremlin said its troops were again advancing “in all directions” after Putin ordered a pause on Friday. The Ukrainian government said there was no break.

Particularly in northern Ukraine, Russian forces “were frustrated by what they saw as very determined resistance,” the US official said, without providing evidence.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser said around 3,500 Russian soldiers had been killed or injured. Western officials said intelligence showed Russia was suffering higher losses than expected.

Russia has not released casualty figures and it has been impossible to verify the tolls or the precise picture on the ground.

At least 198 Ukrainians, including three children, were killed and 1,115 people injured, Interfax said citing Ukraine’s health ministry.

Interfax later quoted the Donetsk regional administration in eastern Ukraine as saying 17 civilians had been killed and 73 injured by Russian shelling. Moscow says it takes care to avoid civilian sites.

Ukraine, a democratic nation of 44 million people, gained independence from Moscow in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union and wants to join NATO and the EU, goals that Russia opposes.

Putin has said he must eliminate what he calls a serious threat to his country from his smaller neighbor, accusing him of genocide against Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine – something Kiev and its allies Westerners dismiss it as a lie.

UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi said more than 150,000 Ukrainian refugees have entered Poland, Hungary, Moldova and Romania.

US President Joe Biden has approved the release of up to $350 million worth of weapons from US stockpiles, while Germany, in a shift from its longstanding policy of not exporting weapons to areas of war, said it would send anti-tank weapons and surface weapons. air missiles. Read more

Reporting by Maria Tsvetkova, Aleksandar Vasovic and Natalia Zinets in Kyiv; Alan Charlish in Medyka, Poland; Fedja Grulovic in Sighetu Marmatiei, Romania; and Reuters offices; Written by Robert Birsel; Editing by William Mallard

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Ukraine’s capital Kiev could fall to the Russians “within hours”, a senior Western intelligence official has said.

The warning, first reported by Bloombergcomes after Moscow on Thursday targeted airbases and other military infrastructure across Ukraine, following President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade its neighbor.

Russian troops crossed the border on Thursday morning from their own territory as well as from Belarus.

Kremlin forces have so far destroyed 83 of Ukraine’s “above ground military installations” since the start of the invasion, according to a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman.

Explosions were heard near the cities of Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Mariupol and in Kiev in a multi-pronged attack by Moscow.

The Ukrainian port city of Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine has been the target of particularly heavy fire, a diplomatic source said. Reuters.

Elsewhere, Russian troops entered the area around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, capturing the area on Thursday afternoon.

Follow our live blog for all the latest updates on the Russian invasion

An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Kiev had lost control of the site, located about 100 km north of the capital, after heavy fighting.

Ukraine’s Health Ministry said Thursday evening that 57 Ukrainians had been killed so far, one of the victims believed to be a young boy, who was hit by a shell in the Kharkiv region.

Meanwhile, the first Ukrainian refugees arrived in Poland by road and rail after fleeing their homes.

Much of the international community has condemned the Russian assault, with G7 leaders calling it “unprovoked and totally unjustified” which violates international law.

“This crisis is a serious threat to the rules-based international order, with ramifications far beyond Europe,” they said in a joint statement.

The leaders added: “President Putin has reintroduced war on the European continent. He put himself on the wrong side of history.

“We call on the Russian Federation to stop the bloodshed, immediately defuse and withdraw its forces from Ukraine.”

Countries like the United Kingdom and the United States have announced new sanctions against Moscow for its aggression against Ukraine. These economic measures will cut off Russian banks from the sterling and dollar markets.

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday he would rule within hours on the request for recognition of two regions in eastern Ukraine held by Russian-backed separatists. as independents – a move that could give Moscow a reason to openly send in troops. Read more

Separately, Moscow said Ukrainian military saboteurs tried to enter Russian territory in armed vehicles, killing five, a charge dismissed as “fake news” by Kiev.

The developments fit a pattern repeatedly predicted by Western governments, who accuse Russia of preparing to fabricate a pretext to invade Ukraine by blaming Kiev for the attacks and relying on calls for help from the separatist proxies.

Washington says Russia has now amassed a force of 169,000 to 190,000 troops in the region, including pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Russia denies any plan of attack against its neighbor, which broke with Moscow rule with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But it has threatened unspecified ‘military-technical’ action unless ‘she receives sweeping security guarantees, including the promise that Ukraine never will. join NATO.

European financial markets slumped on signs of heightened confrontation, after briefly advancing on glimmers of hope that a summit could offer a way out of Europe’s biggest military crisis in decades. The price of oil – Russia’s main export – rose, while Russian stocks and the ruble plunged.

In a televised meeting of his Security Council, which normally meets behind closed doors, Putin reiterated Russia’s demands, insisting it was not enough for the West to say Ukraine was not wasn’t ready to join NATO just yet.

He also said he would make a decision “today” on the request made hours earlier by the leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, which broke away from Kyiv’s control in 2014. read more

Shelling has intensified since last week along a long front line between rebels and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. Rebels abruptly began transporting tens of thousands of civilians to Russia on Friday, accusing Kiev of planning an attack, which Ukraine denies as propaganda.

Ukraine and the West view the rebels as proxies for Russia and have warned for weeks that Moscow could use them to build a war case. Washington says it is absurd to suggest that it would be Kiev that would choose to step up now, with Russian troops massed on its border.

THE “WORST CASE SCENARIO” OCCURS

The televised meeting of the Security Council in Moscow allowed Putin and his top advisers to present their case.

Dmitry Medvedev, vice president of the Security Council, told the meeting that it was “obvious” that Ukraine did not need the two regions and that a majority of Russians would support their independence. Russia already offers passports to residents of the two regions and Medvedev said there are now 800,000 Russian citizens there.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared to raise the stakes even further by claiming that Ukraine – which renounced nuclear weapons after gaining independence from the Soviet Union – had greater ‘nuclear potential’ than Iran. or North Korea.

After talks in Brussels with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Western countries were preparing for a “worst-case scenario”. Airlines Lufthansa, KLM and Air France have all canceled flights to Kyiv. Read more

Hours earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron held out hope for a diplomatic solution, saying Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden had agreed in principle to meet.

Putin said Macron told him Washington had changed its stance on Russia’s security demands, without specifying how.

The White House said Biden agreed to the meeting “in principle,” but only “if an invasion did not occur.”

Washington, which leads the NATO alliance, has flatly rejected the idea of ​​excluding Ukraine for good or reversing NATO’s eastward expansion of the past three decades, but has proposed talks on weapons deployments and other security issues.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a call or meeting between Putin and Biden could be arranged at any time, but there were no concrete plans for a summit yet.

Macron’s office and the White House said details would be ironed out by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later this week.

Lavrov confirmed he planned to meet Blinken in Geneva on Thursday, and said there had been progress in security talks with the West. Blinken said any meeting would be canceled if Russia invaded.

“NOT WITHOUT US”

Ukraine said it must be included in any decision to resolve the crisis and had seen warnings online that hackers were preparing to launch cyberattacks on government agencies, banks and the military Tuesday.

“No one can solve our problem without us,” senior security official Oleksiy Danilov said during a briefing.

The Russian military said a group of saboteurs crossed the Ukrainian border near the Russian city of Rostov on Monday morning, followed by two armored vehicles that came to evacuate them. He said five members of these forces were killed when Russian forces pushed them back. Read more

Ukraine said the report was fake news and that no Ukrainian forces were present in the Rostov region.

Western countries say they are preparing sanctions that would hit Russian businesses and individuals. People familiar with the matter said that could include banning US financial institutions from processing transactions for Russian banks. Read more

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the European Union package would include halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, which is awaiting German and European regulatory approval.

Ukraine called for the immediate imposition of sanctions, saying it would be too late to wait for an invasion. But the United States and Europe have said they will not act before an invasion because the threat of sanctions should act as a deterrent.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would only call an extraordinary meeting to agree sanctions “when the time comes”.

Reporting by Reuters Writing by Kevin Liffey Editing by Peter Graff and Frank Jack Daniel

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Whatever steps Vladimir Putin takes in the coming days will have profound consequences for the security of Russia and Europe.

What does Putin want?

First, he wants to bring Ukraine back into the Russian orbit. This is partly for emotional reasons of national identity and imperial nostalgia: Putin, like many Russians, does not really accept Ukraine as a separate country and people, and resents its post-Soviet independence .

But more than that, Putin has a larger geopolitical goal. He wants to redesign the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe.

In particular, he wants to prevent and reverse NATO’s eastward expansion. And as a corollary, restore Russia’s sphere of influence around its western borders, to give it strategic depth.

It is also a question of political insecurity. The Kremlin is fearful of open democracies flourishing on Russia’s doorstep (whether in Ukraine or Belarus), providing a useless model for its domestic opponents and vectors of foreign influence.

The larger context is Putin’s overarching goal of reasserting Russia’s position and influence globally as a great power, especially in its close neighborhood, and rebuilding Russia’s hard power – a strong Russian army – to support this ambition.

So far, coercive diplomacy seems to have worked for Putin. It has the West’s attention – in buckets. Russia’s security guarantee demands, accompanied by belligerent rhetoric and the threatening buildup of more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders (and more in Belarus), have forced Western leaders to engage with Moscow on Russian terms.

By limit gas supplyRussia has reminded European leaders of the leverage it enjoys through Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.

And he took steps to reaffirm and deepen relations with Chinato ensure that Beijing supports Moscow in any crisis with the West.

Tactically, then, the threat of force has proven effective for Putin, securing high negotiating ground and the ability to escalate pressure on Ukraine and the West.

But if, as Western leaders warn, Putin now decides to invade Ukraine, this could prove to be a strategic mistake, proving counterproductive in the longer term for Russia. Far from bringing Ukraine closer to Russia, such an intervention would alienate the Ukrainian people and bring them closer to Europe. Invading Russia would be fiercely resisted by Ukrainians and inflame nationalist sentiment among the 43 million population.

Second, it would galvanize cohesion and a sense of common purpose within NATO, strengthening the bonds between the United States and its European allies. This would lead to far-reaching sanctions against Russia. This would seriously damage the Russian economy and worsen the livelihoods of ordinary Russians (whom a war now with Ukraine should not play as well as the annexation of Crimea in 2014). And that would probably lead Russia to greater dependence on China.

Moreover, energy dependency works both ways. While Europe needs Russian gas, Russia also needs to sell it, and Europe is Moscow’s biggest customer. Cutting the gas supply would ultimately be counterproductive for Russia.

What is the probability of an invasion?

Russia certainly has the capability, but Putin’s intentions remain unclear. All of this can be bluffing and deception: Russian saber thrusts to destabilize Ukraine and extract concessions from the West. But it is worrying that Putin has yet to accept any of the diplomatic exit ramps offered to him by Western leaders.

The risk is therefore real – underlined now by information that Moscow could design a “false flag“crisis in Russian separatist-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine to provide a pretext for such military intervention.

Russia has a range of options to destabilize Ukraine short of a full-fledged invasion – including a limited military incursion ostensibly to protect Russian citizens in breakaway Donbass regions in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine, launching cyber-attacks against Ukrainian institutions and infrastructure, and cutting off gas and electricity supplies to Ukraine. Or any combination thereof.

Is there a way out of the crisis?

It won’t be easy. The challenge is to find a negotiated settlement that gives Putin enough to persuade him to defuse tensions and return his troops to their barracks, without however rewarding Russia’s belligerence by weakening the security of eastern member states. NATO or Attack on Ukrainian Sovereignty.

Unfortunately, Moscow has already fired as inadequate Western offers to discuss with Russia ways to bolster European security, including mutual limits on missile deployments, greater military transparency around exercises, and expanded political and military dialogue.

France has propose intensify negotiations on the status of breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine to defuse tensions, although initial contacts last week under the Minsk 2 format were disheartening. It’s hard to see Moscow and Kyiv coming to a lasting deal anyway given their fundamentally different goals: Kyiv aspires to regain full authority over Ukrainian territory, while Moscow essentially wants to use Minsk 2 to hamper Ukrainian sovereignty.

Some suggest that NATO could declare a deadline moratorium on new members, but this will probably not satisfy Russia, while upsetting Ukraine (as well as currently neutral Sweden and Finland).

If this crisis is to be resolved peacefully, it will require very difficult compromises from all parties – especially if Putin’s tactical successes to date blind him to longer-term risks – both abroad and at home. interior – that his current situation entails.

The West is set to settle into a long stalemate with Russia.

Dymtro Hurin, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, was a pacifist until Friday when he signed up for weapons training. “I’ve decided the time has come,” he said over coffee at a swanky cafe in central Kiev, where tables were still crowded with customers taking a break and young workers at computers. laptops. “I need to know how to shoot. It’s a useful skill.

Ukraine’s capital is balancing between normality and horror after a warning from US President Joe Biden that it could be directly targeted in a ‘catastrophic’ Russian invasion. Hurin is one of millions trying to decide what to do if war comes to their doorstep.

Some headed west towards the border with Poland, and a few left the country. But most stay at home, by choice or by compulsion, preparing for war and wondering whether to fight. More than a third of adult Ukrainians say they would like to join an armed resistance, if Russian troops enter their country, a recent poll found.

At the Veteran Brownie cafe in Kiev this weekend, owner Roman Nabozhniak is offering free coffee to anyone signed up for a new Territorial Volunteer Army.

“Come after practice, warm up, recharge, smile,” he wrote on Instagram, alongside a photo of a cappuccino and a skydiver patch. The government says thousands of volunteers have been recruited since the beginning of the year.

He himself was not at the cafe because he is about to be recalled, six years after laying down his arms.

“My responsibility is to prepare for every scenario and then wait for something to happen,” he said over salted caramel cake and coffee that wouldn’t be out of place in Hackney or Brooklyn. “I have told my staff that your safety is your priority. If serious fights break out, take care of yourself, not business.

“I couldn’t imagine myself discussing such topics five or six years ago and being so calm, because it would have seemed like it didn’t belong in this reality. Now, everything is to be expected. »

Eastern Ukraine has been living with the daily toll of war for eight years, after Russian-backed separatists carved out territory along the border with Russia in 2014 and troops from Moscow took control of Crimea.

Violence there has continued in sporadic outbursts since, albeit across a frontline largely frozen since 2016. But hundreds of miles away in Kyiv, businesses and bars, shops and factories were springing up, making it the heart of a young democracy’s struggle to escape the shadows. of its powerful neighbour.

“The reason why Russia is invading us is not the language, the economy or the protection of Russian speakers. It is because they know that a free, democratic and economically prosperous Ukraine is a dangerous model for the Russian people. It shows them that there are other possibilities,” Hurin said.

“The irony is that (President Vladimir) Putin lost Ukraine to Russia. Ten years ago there was a big debate about what kind of country we should be, close to Russia or in the west. Since 2014, support for NATO membership has risen from 18% to over 60% today.”

On Friday, US President Joe Biden said he believed Russia had decided to launch a “catastrophic” war, although he also added that last-minute diplomacy could still offer some hope. Tensions have risen since Moscow began mustering tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine’s borders last year. The West responded with increasingly urgent warnings that Putin was considering an invasion and began shipping arms to Ukraine and troops to neighboring countries, including Poland.

Western leaders had put forward February 16 as the date for a possible invasion. So in the central Ukrainian town of Vinnytsia, 21-year-old Oleana and her friends planned to spend the evening together, just in case. “It seemed like we were prepared for anything, but everyone still had extreme levels of anxiety, so we decided to have an ‘invasion party,'” she said over the phone. watched a comedy, opened a bottle of wine and tried to laugh and chat.

“After 2am rang and we realized nothing was going to happen, we just celebrated another peaceful night and everyone went home. At this point, there is nothing we can do about the situation. We can only change our attitude towards it.

Ivona Kostyna, CEO of Veterans Hub, which supports demobilized fighters, says she is grateful for the Western decision to publicize potential Russian invasion plans and practical support in the form of military supplies, although she wishes that it happened earlier.

“Of course we’re encouraged by the international support, but it’s hard for veterans to understand why he wasn’t there before (when needed),” she said. “For eight years we knew we were at war, but it seemed the world hadn’t noticed. Now everyone uses the same language.

She fears the country’s 460,000 veterans, many of whom have taken years to recover from the front lines, will face “the pressure and distress” of escalating tensions, and that many may be recalled.

That would leave his organization short-staffed as demand for their services skyrockets because so many of his 68-member squad are veterans.

No one in Ukraine has any illusions that the West will fight with Ukrainian forces, but many are grateful for the tough stance taken by Biden, Boris Johnson and other Western leaders, including Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, who shuttled to Moscow and Kiev as part of a tender. to repel the war.

“We have a joke that the president who did the most to create modern Ukraine was Putin,” said Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, another member of parliament.

“He’s not fighting against Ukraine, he’s fighting against Western values ​​and the way of life, so the closer we have to our Western partners, the better.”

The Ukraine that Putin hates is the cosmopolitan city where activists are trying to shape a different future, and where independent journalists are rooting out corruption. In its kiosks, where people gather for their morning coffee, and its speakeasy where mixologists serve up the latest trends, people are just trying to get on with their lives.

But the roads are reducing traffic as people stay home or slip away to stay with family and friends further west, reunite with relatives in rural areas or leave the country altogether. Some employers have even helped their entire staff fly overseas.

Alina Viatkina, who spent nearly a year on the front lines aged 19, now works in a mental health support team. She canceled a trip to the United States this week, which had been planned for more than two years, because she felt she could not leave her family, including her parents and a nephew, in Kiev without her.

She is grateful for Western support, saying, “I’m looking at the flight radar and I see all the weapons and all the equipment coming in and I know it’s very expensive for other countries to send them.”

Yet after years of trying to escape the shadows of combat, she is terrified that her efforts will be wiped out in an instant.

So last Wednesday, she and her boyfriend went to dinner at an expensive restaurant. “We thought if Russia comes, why not?” she says. “I was trying so hard to come back from the war (mentally) and now it’s not even that I’m going back to the war. The war comes to me.

Additional reports by Irina Gorlach

Washington
CNN
—

Several American and Western government officials told CNN that the United States has information that Russia has compiled lists of current political figures that it will target for deportation in the event that it invades Ukraine and overthrows the current government. in Kyiv.

Sources close to intelligence say the target lists are part of Russian planning to replace the current administration in Kyiv with a more pro-Russian government, bolstering an earlier UK government disclosure identifying pro-Moscow figures as the Russia planned to install.

The most likely outcome for the politicians and public figures Moscow has targeted for ousting if Kiev falls, the sources say, is jail or assassination.

“We will see what kinds of choices these people will have, but many of them will be imprisoned or killed,” a source close to intelligence said. “I think for the most part it will depend on the cooperation of these people when the time comes and the circumstances in which they are captured or taken away.”

“If it’s in public” – in front of cameras – “it will be different, very different, from someone they corner in the middle of nowhere,” the person added.

CNN has not seen the underlying intelligence intercepts or documents that name the targets or alleged collaborators and their supposed positions in a pro-Russian administration.

And for now, the threat remains contingent on an invasion, even though Russia has amassed between 169,000 and 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, including Russian-led forces in breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. ‘Ukraine.

US officials have continued to intensify warnings that Russia is ready to launch an invasion of Ukraine in the coming days – including a full-scale march on Kiev – but they warn they do not believe the Russian president Vladimir Putin issued the order yet. Putin’s exact plans remain stubbornly difficult to determine. Western intelligence officials are watching closely for signs that Russia has prepared a friendly government-in-waiting as a key indicator of its intentions.

“As we have seen in the past, we expect Russia to try to force cooperation through intimidation and repression,” another US official said. “These acts, which in past Russian operations have included targeted killings, abductions/enforced disappearances, detentions and the use of torture, would likely target those who oppose Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile. in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ people.

CNN has contacted the Ukrainian government for comment.

Foreign Police reported for the first time on US intelligence details of Russian planning.

The revelation of the intelligence comes as the Biden administration has pursued a deliberate strategy of releasing as much intelligence as possible about what it knows about Russian planning on the Ukrainian border — even though it has refused to provide evidence of his claims, citing the need to protect sensitive intelligence sources and methods.

Russia’s goal in the event of an invasion, the source close to the intelligence said, would be to establish a friendly collaborating government which it could designate internationally as the legitimate government of Ukraine. And there are plenty of options to choose from, including politicians with dual nationality, pro-Moscow politicians who fled to Russia after the 2014 democratic revolution, and friendly politicians who already hold seats in Ukraine’s parliament. .

“They’re going to establish a collaborative local government very quickly,” the source said. “And they’ve identified the people who need to leave and who they want to replace them with.”

At the end of January, the British government accused Russia of seeking to replace the current Ukrainian government with a list of pro-Moscow politicians. According to the UK Foreign Office, these pro-Russian figures included former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevheniy Murayev – the leader of a small pro-Russian party that currently holds no seats in the Ukrainian parliament – ​​and other Ukrainian politicians who allegedly links with the Russian intelligence services. .

Yet even though intelligence revealing Russian military movements on the border has been unambiguous — and largely public — Western officials still don’t know precisely what Putin’s goals and intentions are. In part, Russia has opposed Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and demanded legally binding assurances from the alliance that it will not be allowed to join – an assurance that the NATO and the United States said they would not give. But Russia has also demanded a limit on the deployment of troops and weapons to NATO’s eastern flank, and officials increasingly believe that Putin hopes to force a broader change in the region’s security architecture. .

“Every indication we have is that they are ready to enter Ukraine, to attack Ukraine,” President Joe Biden said Thursday.

Broadly speaking, current and former intelligence officials say Putin wants to ensure a pro-Russian Ukraine. There are several ways to achieve this goal without an all-out invasion: he may try to use cyberattacks, the lingering specter of military action and other gray area tactics to destabilize the Ukrainian government from afar .

But Biden administration officials have in recent days begun to warn that the more drastic option — an attack on Ukraine’s capital — is likely.

“Russian tanks and troops will advance towards key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday in an address to the UN Security Council. “We believe those targets include the capital of Russia – the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people.”

Biden administration officials have also stepped up warnings that Moscow could deploy a false pretense to justify an invasion of Ukraine at any time, citing an increase in Russian misrepresentations in recent days.

Blinken laid out what he described as Russia’s plan to “fabricate a pretext for its attack”.

“We don’t know exactly what form this will take,” Blinken said. “It could be a so-called ‘terrorist’ bombing inside Russia, the fabricated discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike on civilians or of a fake – if not a real – chemical weapons attack.”

“Then the attack is scheduled to begin,” he said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will hold further crisis talks with world leaders in a bid to bring Russia back ‘from the brink’ of war with Ukraine.

It comes as Downing Street warns a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine could come ‘at any moment’.

A Number 10 spokeswoman said: “The crisis on the Ukrainian border has reached a critical stage. All the information we have suggests that Russia could be planning an invasion of Ukraine at any time. This would have disastrous consequences for Ukraine and Russia.

“There is still a window of opportunity for de-escalation and diplomacy, and the Prime Minister will continue to work tirelessly alongside our allies to bring Russia back from the brink.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine has demanded to meet Russian officials within 48 hours after Moscow “failed to provide an explanation of its military activities on the border”.

Tweeting today, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, said: “Therefore, we are taking the next step. We demand a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement and redeployment along our border and in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Kyiv has fulfilled all the obligations it took on during the Normandy Four talks in Paris in 2019 on the situation around Donbass. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba on the airwaves of the channel ICTV.

“As far as the Minsk agreements are concerned, I don’t know of a single country in the European Union that would claim that Ukraine is not respecting the Minsk agreements. We all remember the Normandy summit in Paris in 2019. From this summit, the leaders came out with certain agreements, and whatever Ukraine took upon itself, we did everything,” said the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Foreign Affairs.

According to him, Moscow would have failed in its obligations. He also reiterated the assertion that Ukraine would not abide by the Minsk Accords “on Russian terms” under any circumstances.

“Such an option as pressuring Ukraine and forcing Ukraine to do something is not viable. There may be proposals, but if they are unacceptable to us, they will be rejected,” the minister stressed.

Earlier, at a press conference after negotiations with German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock Kuleba, he said he had notified his German counterpart of Kiev’s refusal to conduct a direct dialogue with the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR, although this is planned by the Minsk. Agreements. According to him, this is a red line for Ukrainian leaders.

“We will not enter into direct dialogue with the so-called people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. This is not provided for in the Minsk agreements. An attempt to establish such a dialogue is exclusively in the interests of the Russian Federation in order to get rid of the status of a party to the conflict and turn itself into a mediator,” the minister said.

Meanwhile, Moscow has repeatedly declared that Russia is not a party to the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

“According to the Minsk agreements, Russia is a mediator, and they want to make us a party to the conflict. There is no such thing in the Minsk agreements, and we did not accept that,” Vladimir Putin stressed on December 23, 2021 during the annual press conference.

Significance of Minsk-2

Meanwhile, in the EU and the United States, more and more statements are being made about the need to implement a package of measures approved in 2015. So, US President Joe Biden told Vladimir Zelensky about it during a telephone conversation in December 2021.

“The President emphasized that the United States continues to support the Normandy Format and ongoing efforts to implement the Minsk Accords, noting in particular that the United States generally supports this process,” the White House reported.

In turn, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on February 7, at a joint press conference with the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell in Washington, noted that it was Minsk-2 that was the best way to resolve the conflict in the Donbass. In his view, the process is hampered by the lack of a prescribed sequence of steps for the parties to follow and Russia’s alleged reluctance to comply with existing agreements. At the same time, nowhere in the text of the Minsk agreements is there any Russian participation in the implementation of this set of measures.

“Minsk” does not clarify some issues of the sequence of actions of the parties… The agreements talk about the special status of Donbass, and I think that with the right sequence of actions, the Ukrainians will be ready to move forward” , Blinken said.

The Secretary of State also recalled the next meeting of the political advisers of the leaders of the Four Countries of Normandy, which is to be held in Berlin in the coming days. This meeting will be part of the continuity of the dialogue between the countries, which resumed on January 26 in Paris. Its participants have already confirmed that the Minsk agreements underpin the work of the Normandy format. As reflected in their joint statement, they “aim to reduce existing differences”.

• US State Department

• Gettyimages.ru

• © Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency

French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke about the lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements during a press conference following a meeting with Putin.

“The Minsk agreements can really solve and advance the crisis in Ukraine. I will talk about it… with Mr. President Zelensky,” he said.

A similar view was expressed in mid-December by Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. “A peaceful solution cannot be found without the implementation by both parties of the 2015 Minsk agreements,” he said during a speech to deputies of the lower house of parliament.

Czech Foreign Minister Jakub Kulganek called for implementing the agreements on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council meeting in Stockholm as soon as possible.

Internal Ukrainian contradictions

In Kiev itself, there is no consensus on the need to implement the Minsk agreements. So, on February 1, Volodymyr Zelensky, at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said that Ukraine is responsible for the Donbass agreements and knows who should implement them.

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However, on the same day, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine, in an interview with The Associated Press, noted that the execution of Minsk-2 could destroy the country. In this regard, he expressed the opinion that it is necessary to sign new agreements.

The next day, Dmitry Kuleba, in an interview with the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, said that Ukraine would not respect the key conditions of the Minsk agreements – granting Donbass a special status and the right of veto.

Vladimir Putin, at a press conference after a meeting with Macron, expressed the opinion that “the authorities in Kyiv have set course for the dismantling of the Minsk agreements”. According to him, this conclusion is motivated by the lack of implementation of the Steinmeier formula in Ukrainian legislation, as well as decisions on constitutional reform, amnesty, local elections and legal aspects of the special status of Donbass.

Experts interviewed by RT note that the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is dishonest, stating that Kyiv has fulfilled all its obligations in the Donbass, since no key points of the package of measures have not been implemented.

“The only thing that has really been done are measures aimed at destroying the status of the Russian language in Ukraine, including at the legislative level. Moreover, the constant military demonstrations on the demarcation line in the Donbass and the strikes against civilians in the DPR and LPR do not tally with Kuleba’s statement. In this regard, it can be said that Kyiv not only failed in its obligations, but also went far back in the opposite direction, ”said Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Pedagogical University of Moscow State. a comment to RT.

• Independence Square in Kyiv

• Gettyimages.ru

• © TR/NurPhoto

He also noted that the inconsistency in the statements of Ukrainian officials on “Minsk-2” is a consequence of the lack of unity on this issue in the political circles of the country.

“Today, it is the weakest political team that has been in power since 1991. It is obvious that the low professional aptitude of politicians leads to such a mismatch. At the same time, in fact, no one in the current leadership of Ukraine supports the implementation of the Minsk agreements, no matter how Zelensky convinces us otherwise. They just use different methods to delay the implementation of Minsk-2 and shift responsibility to Russia,” the analyst explained.

Moreover, as Ukrainian political scientist Alexander Semchenko pointed out in an interview with RT, Kiev is interested in an ongoing conflict in Donbass.

“First, it is beneficial to its Western conservatives, and it is necessary to fulfill the tasks set by the West. Second, it solves domestic political problems, allowing you to insulate yourself from a disloyal electorate and to explain the failures of economics and social policy,” the expert explained.

According to him, if Europe and the United States were really interested in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, they would use all possible tools to force Kiev to defuse and fulfill its obligations, and not limit themselves to mere declarations.

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“The assets of many Ukrainian politicians are located abroad. And we know how much the West likes to use sanctions, threatening to seize or alienate foreign assets in order to achieve its goals. However, the West has taken no such action either against Poroshenko or against Zelensky. So, in general, they are happy with Kiev’s policy there,” Semchenko added.

At the same time, Vladimir Shapovalov believes that Europe is already tired of the continuing tension on the EU’s eastern border. Moreover, they fear that a possible military conflict will make Europe hostage to the situation.

“Some European politicians are beginning to realize that the current situation could turn Europe into a battlefield. From then on, processes began to take place in which certain European politicians raised their voices in favor of a peaceful resolution of the situation. And the first step in this direction is Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations,” the analyst concluded.